Reds should contend in second half race

Published 12:00 am Monday, July 15, 2002

Generally, writers like to give a second half outlook regarding teams after the All-Star Game.

Since the All-Star Game never really ended thanks to the 7-7 tie, that means any analysis may be given at any time the rest of the season. So, an insightful look could be given the middle of September and still qualify.

But we're not going to stretch the rules. Instead, it's on with the analysis, such as it is.

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Getting excited about the Cincinnati Reds second half and postseason chances may be a moot point. The owners and players are mounting a battle of billionaires vs. millionaires

with no concern for the fans who already are avoiding the ballparks and their high ticket prices.

Still, the Reds general manager Jim Bowden is planning for the second half run as was evident by last Friday's trade with the Florida Marlins to address the starting pitching situation.

So far the pitching has been the bright spot and the offense has underachieved, quite the reversal of what was expected prior to the start of the season.

Jimmy Haynes is 10-5, thus matching his win total of last season. Elmer Dessens , who ranks among the top ERA leaders in the league, has become the ace of the staff.

Joey Hamilton and Chris Reitsma have been steady and stayed healthy.

The No. 5 spot has been unstable, but the acquisition of Ryan Dempster should solidify the rotation.

Although the bullpen has been one of the best in baseball again, the lack of innings by the starters will take its toll down the stretch. The Reds are closing in on their own record of 92 games without a complete game.

In the bullpen, Danny Graves is somewhat shaky at times, but he's on pace to set a team record for saves.

Scott Sullivan has proven durable and nearly unhittable. Gabe White has been better in his second stint with the Reds. Scott Williamson, out last season with an elbow injury, and John Riedling, who suffered from a shoulder ailment,

have returned to show a lot of promise.

The offense was supposed to be the team's strong suit before the season, but the Reds have been hitting around the .200 mark with runners in scoring position. Even though they have a winning record, the Reds have been outscored by their opponents.

Adam Dunn, 22, and Juan Encarnacion were the team's top RBI men, but Encarnacion is now in Florida as part of the Dempster trade. Showing the qualities that made him a quarterback at Texas, Dunn is beginning to assert himself as a leader on the team and will only get better.

The emergence of rookie Austin Kearns made it possible for the Reds to move Encarnacion. Already a good hitter, Kearns has a strong throwing arm that is among the best in the league.

And then there is Ken Griffey Jr. Forget his lack of production and the injuries. If they Reds are going to win the division and advance in the postseason, Griffey has to return to his old form. He's still one of the best players in the game when healthy.

Barry Larkin is beginning to show his age at 38 which is another reason the hot-hitting Brandon Larson has joined the parent club. Larson could be another Kearns or Dunn at third base with Aaron Boone moving from third to shortstop.

Todd Walker is on a hitting tear and his defense has been a surprisingly improved. Sean Casey has begun to hit and his defense is better, but he needs to supply more power if he wants to remain at first base. Dunn could take over the spot and Russell Branyan would take over in the outfield.

The addition of Brady Clark and Reggie Taylor gives the team some depth in the outfield.

The catching job is woeful. Corky Miller is the best hitter, Kelly Stinnett makes $1 million but has been doing his best Griffey impression as a disabled starter, and Jason LaRue is the best defensive catcher but strikes out even in batting practice.

Speaking of defense, the Reds are still among the worst in the league, but they're better than last season when they booted the ball around 138 times, the second most in the NL.

So what does all this mean? Look for the Reds to contend to the end, but they'll need the Cardinals to continue their struggles due to the death of Darryl Kile, and somewhere along the line the Astros have to cool off. Only then can the Reds win the Central Division. There will be no wild card here. Jim Walker/The Ironton Tribune