Survey: Unemployed levels higher than reported?

Published 12:00 am Friday, May 28, 2004

Distressed or not distressed? A new survey takes issue with a recent Ohio Department Development decision to remove Lawrence County from the state's list of distressed counties.

The survey, conducted by 15 employees at the Lawrence County Workforce Development Resource Center, showed Lawrence County's unemployment rate is higher than the rate calculated by the state.

According to the study,

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the April 2004 unemployment rate was 17.9 percent.

The state calculation for the same time was 5.7 percent. Lawrence County Department of Jobs and Family Services Director Buddy Martin said he thinks the truth is really somewhere in between.

In late February, the ODD announced it was removing Lawrence from its list of distressed counties and into the transitional category for the fiscal year 2005 because Lawrence County's economy is improving. The decision was based on the county's declining unemployment rate as well as other factors.

At that time, local officials disputed the decision, saying that while they wish the county's economic picture really would improve, they doubt it has already. They said this survey may prove their point.

"If you're asking me if I thought the unemployment rate was 17.9 percent I'd say 'no,' it isn't but it is higher than 5.7," Martin said. He said he thinks the county's jobless rate is really 10 percent, roughly.

Martin said he thought perhaps the state's rates are so low because of the number of questions they ask and the way in which they are asked as well as the number of people contacted for their surveys. The local survey uses many of the same questions the state uses in determining its unemployment rate, but expanded on that list of questions. For instance: the WDRC study also asked people who have been unemployed six months or longer if they were no longer looking for work because they had given up.

The number of people who said they fall into this category was 10.4 percent. That issue is not addressed in state unemployment calculations.

The study also showed that slightly more people are living below the poverty level than what state figures show: 20.1 percent versus 15.1 percent. Most other survey results in such areas as medical card assistance and the number of food stamp recipients were close to the state calculations.

The survey was conducted the third week of April. It has an error rate of plus or minus 4 percent. It was validated by Dr. Dave Lucas, a communications professor at Ohio University Southern.

The survey contacted 635 households and obtained answers from just more than half of them: 329. Of those 329 households, 859 individuals were included in the survey.

The low state jobless rate does more than move Lawrence County from one government category to another, local officials said. The state's decision means, among other things, that the county will have to provide a 50-percent match for some state and federally funded projects compared to the 20- percent match in the past when it was considered a distressed county.

Lawrence County Commissioner George Patterson said while he is hopeful the local economy will improve, he does not want the state to make changes to the county's status until improvements are tangible.

"Don't take us off the list unless it's (the good news) an actuality," Patterson said.

"The part I hate is that 10 percent have given up looking for a job," Commission President Doug Malone said. Malone said he was not surprised by the results of the survey. He said local leaders are aware that the economy is still distressed, not transitional. "It's going to be hard for them (state officials) not to recognize that survey."

Martin said he will make state officials aware of the results of the survey.