Who are Republicans for president in 2012?

Published 9:59 am Friday, February 4, 2011

You may have noticed that this year Republican presidential candidates have been slow to announce. But why?

Is it that the strongest candidates are concerned that President Obama’s recent polling numbers may make winning less likely?

That seems unlikely. Given the persistence of unemployment Republicans would have to view any President as vulnerable in the voting booth. And most economists believe that the jobs recovery will be slow, with unemployment still hovering around 8 percent by 2012.

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So why have so few announced their intentions to run for the presidency?

The problem is electoral politics for 2012 are complicated for Republicans since the arrival of the Tea Party.

The Tea Party movement, when new and unknown, was seen by many voters as a possible answer to the similarity perceived of the two major political parties.

But, as with all new things, the Tea Party acquired an identity over the last year.

The Tea Party supporters are affluent, strongly conservative, and often perceived, rightly or wrongly, as angry and intolerant.

In a mid-January USA Today/Gallup poll the Tea Party was seen as slightly more unfavorable than favorable by voters, 42 percent to 39 percent.

But within the Republican Party those who identify with this movement are the most feared of all sub groups. Where once conservative Christians held power, the Tea Party now commands the center of Republican politics.

This pushes an already conservative Republican Party even farther to the right of American politics.

For potential presidential candidates it makes winning the presidency more complicated if not more difficult.

In order to win, Republican primary candidates must court the most conservative Tea Party voters, because they are the most likely voters to vote in the primaries.

For Mitt Romney, a relative moderate within Republicans, this poses a near impossible crisis. Romney passed a health care bill as governor of Massachusetts that mirrors the health care bill passed by the last Congress and signed by the President last year.

And while Romney may be among the most electable candidates in a national election, if he cannot win the primaries he will never have that opportunity.

Falling into this category of “moderates” in the current far right Republican lexicon would also be Mike Huckabee, Michael Bloomberg, Mitch Daniels and Tim Pawlenty. Each of them faces daunting odds in winning primaries dominated by Tea Party supporters.

Closer to the Tea Party issues would be Newt Gingrich, Haley Barbour, and Jeb Bush. Bush is another candidate who could sway Independents to his candidacy, but only if he is able to resist taking far right political positions to win the primaries.

Perhaps the candidates closest to Tea Party ideals are Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann and Mike Pence. But each of these candidates would struggle to win Independent voters in a national election.

So what do potential candidates need to do to win?

Hard to know….if they voted for TARP that will turn off these primary voters. If they supported any form of health care, like Romney, that too is a deal killer if they used earmarks, that is damaging.

If they ever supported any, even modest, type of gun control, that is a problem. If they do not support ending abortion, that is a difficult position to overcome.

If they favor foreign aid, that is a problem in the primaries. If they would ever raise taxes of any kind, for any reason, that is a candidate killer.

2012 could be an election year when Republicans have a real opportunity to control both houses of Congress and win the Presidency. But, with the Tea Party influence, that seems unlikely.

Jim Crawford is a contributing columnist for The Tribune and a former educator at Ohio University Southern.