Republicans positioning selves for 2012
Published 10:04 am Friday, March 25, 2011
After being drubbed at the polls in 2006 and 2008 Republicans could hardly have been happier with the results of 2010, an outstanding election success by historical standards, and, hopefully for their supporters, a major thrust forward for the 2012 presidential election year.
So far though, it does not seem to be working out that way…apparently capitalizing upon the 2010 elections results is considerably harder than anticipated.
The overall Republican strategy seems to be Jobs, economic conservatism, and social conservatism. At least these have been the topics most mentioned in the successful 2010 midterms. In practice, there are some disparities.
First, who could forget the Republican critique of the Obama administration for its inability to significantly reduce unemployment? It was a major factor in Republican success in 2010.
Yet, once in office Republicans have said not a word about jobs, unless you consider Speaker Boehner’s comment noting spends cuts may cost jobs as “so what” relevant.
But on economic conservatism there has been a great deal of activity, at the state and federal levels, actions that have been dynamic and surprising in many regards.
Wisconsin Governor Walker did indeed run on cutting the costs of state employees, but did not run on union busting which became his central issue this winter.
Ohio Governor Kasich likewise ran on cutting spending without raising taxes, but failed to note he would seek to end the key elements of Ohio’s public employee unions.
While both governors have four years to prove their success in their jobs, their early results cannot be viewed as successful by any potential Republican presidential candidate for 2012.
You see, the eventual Republican nominee will need to win Ohio and hope to win Wisconsin.
Without one of these two states, a Republican presidential victory becomes unlikely.
Yet Gov. Walker has more Wisconsinites opposing him than supporting him. And Gov. Kasich is plowing into even deeper negative territory.
Kasich has a favorable rating of 30 percent and an unfavorable rating of 46 percent according to a Quinnipiac University poll released this week. Unpopular governors hurt presidential candidates of the same party.
In both cases their fiscal policies beyond union cuts have been to shift the budget shortfalls from the state level to the local level, creating huge holes in school budgets and city finances that will result in higher local taxes or huge service reductions.
In an odd claim, both governors have said they will not “kick the can” of budget shortfalls into the future as did their predecessors, at the same time kicking the can to localities and municipalities.
At the federal level, due to the impact of the Tea Party on the Republican Party, the strategy to cut expenses has eclipsed entirely the voters’ priority for jobs, jobs, and jobs. In survey after survey voters have repeated their interest in job creation is far greater than their interest in budget cuts.
The political outcome has been that Republicans and Democrats have been perceived almost identically by voters, each earning only 33-34 percent support for their work.
To make matters worse, in a new Pew poll President Obama tops a generic Republican candidate 47 percent to 37 percent Other polls just out show Obama beating each of the current top Republican potential nominees soundly.
It seems the momentum for 2012 from the 2010 elections have already been squandered by Republicans.
Beating a sitting president is never an easy goal, but beating him with an unpopular congressional contingent and unpopular governors is a steep uphill climb.
The Republican path to victory in 2012 would seem to be moderation…a path the party seems determined to avoid.
Jim Crawford is retired educator and political enthusiast living here in the Tri-State.