Archived Story

Win not so big after all

Published 11:24am Friday, June 13, 2014

Eric Cantor’s Virginia primary election defeat by college professor David Brat has created a sizable shift in the federal political scene and one big loser may well be immigration legislation.

For the past 30 years the U.S. has experienced problems with immigrants crossing our southern borders and attempting to remain illegally in the U.S. Many came to America with small children who have now lived most of their lives as Americans, illegal but life-long residents.

But solutions have been elusive to the resolution of illegal Immigrants.

There has been a serious and expensive effort to better control the southern U.S. borders. Today there are more than 20,000 Border Patrol agents, double the number assigned as recently as 2004. And 652 miles of fence, all that has been approved by Congress to date, has been completed on the 2,000 mile long American-Mexican border. Technology investments have also helped secure the border.

But border crossings continue as a problem in spite of the continued investments made. Successfully sealing the borders has resisted the efforts of both Republican and Democratic administrations.

Polling of Americans on immigration this week by the non-partisan Public Religion Research Institute indicates that a majority of Americans believe a path to citizenship for these immigrants is the most acceptable outcome for those now living in America. In results almost identical to polling in March 2013, 70 percent of Democrats, 61 percent of Independents and 51 percent of Republicans approve of a path to citizenship.

Significantly however, many more Republicans favor identification and expulsion of these illegals, 30 percent, than Democrats, 11 percent. 40 percent of self-identified Tea Party supporters favor expulsion.

Eric Cantor was viewed by the White House as an obstructionist to immigration reform this year in Congress, but Representative elective Brat attacked Cantor for favoring some exceptions to expulsion for children raised in America, and Virginia primary voters seems to respond to that criticism by favoring Brat.

The ripple effect of this election, the first ever loss of a House Majority Leader in office, may push the already reluctant Republicans to step away from any immigration reform for not only this year, but the balance of the Obama presidency.

This potential denial of resolution of our immigration policies may have even greater impact in the 2106 presidential elections as the largest growing voter bloc is American Hispanics. Hispanics voted 70 percent for the Democratic presidential candidate Obama in 2012 and will likely vote their displeasure with Republican immigration policies in even larger numbers in 2016. This will make it exceedingly difficult for the Republican nominee to win the 2016 presidential election.

And for Republican candidates in the 2016 primaries they may find it necessary to deny immigration solutions favored by the general public in order to win their increasingly right wing primary voters support. This may grant them a primary victory but an election problem by standing against public views on immigration.

More troubling still, such choices might solidify Hispanic voters within the Democratic Party for generations, joining other minorities and further isolating the Republican Party as limited mostly to white, Southern, and rural voters. This demographic, if left unchanged, will minimize the Republican appeal to voters to a degree that not even district gerrymandering and voter restrictions can offset.

All in all, congratulations are in order for Mr. Brat for his surprising victory in the Virginia primary. It was no mean feat.

This is a big win for the Tea Party. For America, maybe not so much.

 

Jim Crawford is a retired educator and political enthusiast living here in the Tri-State.

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  • BILLCO

    I wonder how many millions that little outing cost the tax payers? Oh well, they need their party time. Lol.

    (Report comment)

  • mikehaney

    What amazes me is that the democrats/socialists/food stampers, think there is a “president”/neighborhood organizer in the whitehouse. —–lol(nervous laugh)
    ———————————-
    RANCHO MIRAGE, Calif. (AP) — President Barack Obama is returning to Washington faced with a choice on Iraq.

    Obama was wrapping up a four-day weekend in the Palm Springs area Monday.

    The White House says Obama got several updates on a violent insurgency bringing chaos to Iraq during his getaway with his wife, daughter Malia and friends.

    (Report comment)

  • mickakers

    Jim Crawford; Thank you for a thought provoking article. The so called Tea Party (do they dress like Indians?) call to mind the limited mentality as represented by the No Nothing Party of the 1850′s. The Tea Party has been and is one of the most disruptive and backward influences on our government and society. I feel confident their influence will be short lived as was the No Nothings, but caution is the order of the day. The Democratic Party (so called liberals) must cease and desist in promoting the killing of the unborn (abortion) and the destruction of a normal and wholesome family life (Same Sex Marriage). The opposition to abortion and same sex marriage give the Tea Party credence. Is there the possibility we all should dress like Indians?

    (Report comment)

  • mikehaney

    Studies of the pre-frontal cortex have shown that people of liberal suasion have a thought process akin to children who believe everything should be provided for them. It is based on self-doubt and the internalized conviction that one is not capable of solving one’s own problems. This infantilism expresses itself in the belief that if only the government were powerful enough, it could “fix” any problem and provide everything for everyone. It REALLY is a mental defect, a form of personality disorder.

    (Report comment)

  • BILLCO

    I lived in Florida for over twenty yrs and seen my share of illegals, and I will be the first too say this has got too stop, we don’t have jobs enough to go around for our people let alone taking on Mexicos. I had a few guys working for me that I knew were illegal back then, they both were married had kids, I think a few of the kids were borne in this country. they were two of the hardest working people I’ve ever met. As I said before there has too be something done but just kicking these people out of the country when they have proven themselves too be good citizens is not right. I say when they have been here and showed to be good hard working people they should get their citizenship right off when they have been here for ten or so years with no problems and raising a family they have earned the right too be here. The jobs that they have for the most part are the jobs that we (both black and white) will not do so washington needs too get off their cans and do something about the problem. JMO.

    (Report comment)

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