Leading analysts predict Clinton win in Ohio
Published 3:45 pm Saturday, August 6, 2016
With the conventions out of the way and the fall campaign beginning, two respected election analysts say Ohio is on track to be won by Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the presidential election in November.
Larry Sabato, a longtime political scientist who has correctly predicted recent presidential races and most congressional seat results, released his latest forecast on Thursday.
Sabato lists Ohio as a ‘lean Democratic” state, and says Clinton, the former U.S. secretary of state, will win 347 electoral votes nationally to 191 for her opponent, real estate tycoon and reality TV star Donald Trump.
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While the most recent polling in Ohio shows the race tied, no new surveys have been conducted since the presidential conventions ended, a period which has seen national polling flip from a slight Trump lead to Clinton leading by nine points in some surveys.
In an interview with FOX News host Megyn Kelly on Thursday, Sabato said he expects a “healthy win” for Clinton, but “not a landslide.” He said it is still possible for Trump to make a comeback, provided he focuses his message on the economy and terrorism.
Sabato’s analysis is similar to that of Nate Silver, of 538.com, who correctly predicted all state results for the 2008 election.
Silver, who uses a statistical analysis model for his forecast, which updates frequently, currently gives Clinton a 70.5 percent chance of winning Ohio, and an 81.7 percent chance of winning nationally.
While Silver has an accurate track record for predicting general elections, he has had his forecasting ability questioned this year by some, after he dismissed Trump’s ability to win the Republican nomination and considered his bid a longshot.
A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to be elected. Ohio has 18 electors who will cast ballots for president.