Jim Crawford: It won’t be close
Donald Trump will lose in 2020…and he knows it.
He reads polling like bettors read their spread sheet or judges read the law. The two latest polls on the national voting outcome show his loss reaching epic proportions, favoring Biden nationally by 10 percent in each poll.
FiveThirtyEight, a polling summary location, rates Biden’s chances of winning at 77 percent. FiveThirtyEight also rates the chances of Democrats winning the Senate at 62 percent.
So, Trump may not just lose the election, he may lose by 400 electoral votes in a landslide that shifts Ohio, Texas and Georgia, states where the margin of error puts the race a tie, to the Democratic column.
Trump trails in “must win” states including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida, and in Arizona and Minnesota by more than the polling margin of error.
More trouble for Trump, the number of undecided voters for the presidency is at an all-time low, with less than 11 percent of voters still open to convince, suggesting the upcoming debates will have little effect upon voting in 2020.
For Biden, the margin of victory projected has increased in the most recent polls, showing a trend towards a tsunami of Blue Wave victories, ushering in a Democratic Senate, and increasing House members for the Democrats.
In short, this is not likely to be a close election at all. So, when Trump says he may not accept the election outcome because more voters will mail-in their ballots as a result of the pandemic, it does not matter in the least. America has conducted elections for over 240 years and this year will be the same; free, fair and honest.
Yes, Trump will cheat to hold on to power, but given an election where the outcome is clear and decisive, his attempts will be laughable and useless.
And, of course, because Donald Trump cares not for facts, his “case” for ignoring the election results, the now famous charge that mail-in ballots are corrupt, will also be pathetic.
Every state has a system for mailing-in your vote, and every state predicts the mail-in vote will greatly increase this November as voters seek to avoid public exposure during the coronavirus. Nine states, and the District of Columbia, will offer ballots sent to all voters. Five of those states has successfully done so for past elections. Four, all likely Democratic majority states, and D.C., have added this voting option.
There will be errors, there always are, but the errors are rare and the ballots are safe and secure in every state.
Trump does not want to leave office, that is not surprising, others have had the same disappointment.
But those who have experienced this difficult moment of being rejected by the voters, have often suffered for what they could not accomplish if only they had more time.
Trump, on the other hand, has no agenda, nothing he wants to accomplish beyond satisfying his own incredible ego. There is no Republican Party platform for 2020 and Trump has revealed no agenda for a second term. Trump wants to win so he will not feel humiliated, that is all he has as his case for re-election.
It is too late, Donald Trump has been a terrible president, perhaps the single worst president in our history. His handling of the pandemic has killed far too many Americans to be forgiven.
The economic disaster that is over the nation is ongoing and he is ignoring it. His boorish behavior does not represent America.
And now, in his moment of desperation, he seeks to defy the orderly transition of power when he loses the election of 2020. Fine, it is fitting end to this man, the narcissist who would have been King.
Farewell, Donald, your loss is our gain.
Jim Crawford is a retired educator and political enthusiast living here in the Tri-State.
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