Latest poll shows Ohio deadlocked in presidential race

Published 12:20 am Saturday, September 26, 2020

With the first presidential debate set to take place in the state on Tuesday, the latest polling finds the race for Ohio’s 18 electoral votes in a virtual tie.

According to a new survey from Quinnipiac University, former Vice President Joe Biden leads incumbent Republican President Donald Trump, 48-47 percent.

Biden’s lead was within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 3 percent. The poll surveyed 1,085 likely voters from Sept. 17-21.

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The results, showing a close race, matched those of other recent polls.

A Baldwin Wallace University poll, taken Sept. 8-22, found Biden leading 45-44 percent, while a Civiqs poll, from Sept. 11-15.

Despite Biden’s lead in the latest, one of the major forecasters are still predicting the state goes Republican, rather than moving it into a “toss-up” designation. The Cook Political Report rates it as “Lean Republican.”

Nate Silver, of, see it as a closer race, predicting Trump has a 52 out of 100 chance of taking the state, compared to Biden at 48 out of 100.

The state’s voting history in the past two elections is a factor in analysts’ forecasts.

While Democratic President Barack Obama won Ohio in 2008 and 2012, Trump carried the state in the 2016 general election, defeating Democratic former Sec. of State Hillary Clinton, 52-44 percent. Despite the Democratic wave in the 2018 midterms, Republicans swept all statewide races, with only Democratic U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown as an exception.

Since 1944, only one presidential candidate, John F. Kennedy in 1960, has won the U.S. presidential election without carrying Ohio. National polls currently show Biden leading Trump.
Tuesday’s presidential debate, the first of three, will take place at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland and will air on broadcast networks 9-10:30 p.m.

The general election is set for Nov. 3.