Ohio’s U.S. Senate race expected to be major battleground for fall

Published 12:00 am Thursday, August 11, 2022

With Labor Day and the beginning of intense general election campaigning nearing, Ohio’s U.S. Senate race is attracting attention for its competitiveness.

Three polls from Center Street PAC, conducted from Aug. 1-3, gave Democratic U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan a lead, ranging from 10-11 percent, over “Hillbilly Elegy” author and venture capitalist J.D. Vance, while an Impact Research poll, conducted from July 21-28, gave Ryan a 3 point lead over Vance, 48-45 percent. These finding are similar to PEM Management Corporation survey, conducted from July 22-24, which had Ryan leading, 44-38 percent.

Polls conducted in the past few weeks are from political action committees, while the Impact poll was conducted for the Ryan campaign. Polling from major journalism organizations for Ohio has been sparse this summer, with USA Today/Suffolk University’s poll being the most recent. Conducted from May 22-24, it had Vance leading, 42-39 percent.

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Despite Ryan leading in their average of polling, election forecast website 538.com still slightly favors Vance in the race, predicting a 6-point spread and giving him a 75 percent chance of victory.

Several news organizations have noted that Ohio’s race is becoming an unexpected battleground for the fall. A feature story in Politico over the weekend cited Ryan’s momentum, but noted that Vance and the Republican Senatorial Committee are beginning a major television ad campaign this week, and a $3.8 million ad buy from the conservative One Nation PAC is planned for air.