Brown up double digits; Cordray has edge on DeWine

New polling in Ohio shows Democrats leading in the top two races in the state’s November midterm election.

Incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown, seeking a third term in office, leads his Republican challenger, U.S. Rep. Jim Renacci, 51-34, in a new survey from Quinnipiac University.

The survey found Brown’s job approval among voters at 55 percent, with 29 percent disapproving, with his personal approval at 48 percent and 29 percent disapproving.

Renacci, who has represented Ohio’s 16th Congressional district since 2011, had a 22 percent favorability rating, with 26 percent holding an unfavorabile view.

However, 50 percent of voters said they did not know enough about him to form an opinion.

Brown also had a lead in a survey from Suffolk University, which found him leading Renacci, 53-37 percent.

Republicans had sought to make Brown a top target in the midterms, hoping to build on President Donald Trump’s victory in the state in 2016, in which he carried Ohio over Democrat Hillary Clinton, 52-44 percent.

There may be some signs the party is no longer making the state a priority in the Senate elections.

In an interview following last week’s Virginia primaries, U.S. Sen. Cory Gardner, chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, was asked by news website Politico as to which races his party was focusing on.

Gardner said his party was not looking at Virginia, where Republican nominee Cory Stewart has been a source of controversy, but he also did not list Ohio among the party’s top targets.

“At the senatorial committee we’re focusing on Missouri, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, West Virginia and Florida. There are great races around the country,” Gardner said. “We have a big map this year, and what I’ve laid out in races that I’ve talked about, Virginia’s not on it.”

Republicans had initially hoped to recruit Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel for the race.

However, Mandel dropped out of the primary, citing a health issue his wife was facing. Renacci, who was running for governor, shifted his efforts to run for Senate after Mandel’s announcement and went on to win the primary

Governor’s race

In the governor’s race, Democrat Richard Cordray leads Republican Mike DeWine, 42 to 40 percent.

Cordray, the former U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director and Ohio attorney general, has a 32 percent favorability rating with voters in the survey, with 15 percent holding an unfavorable view.

DeWine, the current Ohio attorney general and a former U.S. senator, receives a 39 percent favorable rating from voters, with 31 percent holding an unfavorable view.

Both candidates have room to shift attitudes in the race. In Cordray’s case, 51 percent of voters say they do not know enough to form an opinion, while 27 percent said the same of DeWine.

Cordray took a larger lead in Suffolk’s poll, which had him up 43-36 percent over DeWine. In this survey, 16 percent of voters were undecided.

The numbers in the race surprised some observers who had figured that DeWine, a longtime name in state politics, had an advantage going into November.

As a result of Quinnipiac’s survey, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which offers nonpartisan analysis on elections, moved the governor’s race from their ranking “lean Republican” to “toss-up.”

However, some still consider DeWine a “soft favorite” for the race, as Kyle Kondik, of Sabato’s group, described the Republican candidate to the Cincinnati Enquirer.

Kondik cited the fact that undecideds in the race, which comprised 16 percent of Suffolk respondents, lean Republican, giving DeWine an opportunity to make up ground, as well as the Suffolk poll’s high margin of error. DeWine also enjoys a significant fundraising lead over Cordray, with $7.2 million cash on hand to Corday’s $2.6 million, according to reports filed this month.

Jennifer Duffy, of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, expressed some doubt on Corday’s lead.

“It is extremely unlikely that Cordray is up by seven points and he may not even be ahead by two points, but the takeaway from these surveys is that this race is within the margin of error,” she said in a post on the site, and pointed to a poll from last month, which had DeWine leading.

DeWine and Corday are running to succeed Republican John Kasich, who, after serving two terms, is limited from running again.

Sabato’s group also moved the Senate race from “lean Democratic” to “likely Democratic,” given Brown’s improved lead.

Quinnipiac surveyed 1,082 voters from June 7-12, including both landlines and cell phones. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.

Suffolk polled 500 voters, from June 6-11 on landlines and cell phones. The survey has a margin of error of +/1 4.4 points.